Published research · The archive

What survived
the sift.

Report dateJul 19, 2026
FormatSubstack note
Valuation~7.1x FY26e P/E
CashA$14.8M / no bank debt
BearA$0.75 (−20%)
BaseA$1.90 (+100%)
Bull~A$2.70
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongEvery policy headline re-rates the whole sector. The flagship field is a national shortage occupation and the cohorts keep growing.
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Report dateJul 4, 2026
FormatSubstack note
Valuation~1.2x EV/trailing earnings
CashUS$101.76M / no debt
Bear0–20% loss
BaseC$1.41 (+80%)
Bull~C$2.20
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongPriced for ore exhaustion. The reserve paperwork is seven years stale; the drilling is not.
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Report dateApr 22, 2026
Length42 pages
Valuation~18.5x FY26e EV/EBITDA
Adj. EBITDA margin27.1% (FY25)
Soft backlog€1,414M
ROCE33% (LTM Sep 25)
Balance sheetNet cash / asset-light
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongVertical integration still under-modeled.
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Report dateMar 31, 2026
Length52 pages
Valuation~2.5x EV/EBITDA
Production23,242 bbls/d (FY25)
CashUS$306M (Dec 31, 25)
Long-term debtZero
Balance sheetUS$306M cash / zero debt
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongReserve-life and infrastructure optionality missed.
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Report dateMar 16, 2026
Length32 pages
Valuation~9.1x EV/EBITDA
ROA (TTM)19.2%
Net cash & receivablesUS$78M
Long-term debtZero
Balance sheetUS$78M net cash / zero LT debt
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongInternally funded pipeline not in the price.
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Report dateMar 1, 2026
Length21 pages
Valuation9.0x EV/EBITDA
P/E adjusted17.7x
Free cash flowUS$208M
Net cashUS$189M
Balance sheetUS$189M net cash
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongRobotics share and defense growth obscured by a cyclical lens.
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Report dateFeb 2026
Length17 pages
Valuation9.71x P/E TTM
EV / EBITDA2.93x
Net cash / market cap62%
ROE37.6%
Balance sheetRMB 3.6B net cash
StatusPublished
Why the market may be wrongPriced like a developer. It is a cash-rich service operator.
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Report dateFeb 2026
Length20 pages
Valuation3.5x EBITDA ex India stake
P/E TTM8.2x
Market cap€470M
FCF yield~13%
Balance sheetListed asset support
StatusWatchlist follow-up
Why the market may be wrongNo credit for the listed Indian stake.
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